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Population growth

As we have explained in the Introduction to this reference web site, “population” in a demographic sense is much more than population growth – the term also covers mortality, decline, migration, and population structure. The aging of societies is included in the latter, and it has recently received much publicity in the media. This web site is focusing on population growth, in an effort to help students have a better understanding of this phenomenon, its importance and the factors underlying it. We anticipate that the subject will return to public attention again before long.

The latest long-range projections by the United Nations show a wide range of possible sizes of the world’s population between now and year 2300. Clearly we cannot know what the world’s population size will be in 2300, but the United Nations Population Division has projected a set of scenarios – known as the medium, high and low projections – based on calculated assumptions. This document can be found in PDF format at: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf (1.77MB)

We would like to point out two remarkable graphs in this document. The following graph is figure 6 on page 13 (PDF reader page 29). It shows that the medium projection, which posits that once the 9 billion level is reached the population size will stay at approximately at this level for a long time, contrasts sharply with the low and high projections.

Figure 8, below, on page 15 of the same document (PDF reader page 29) gives the total fertility rates (TFR) associated with these projections. What is particularly interesting is that the difference in TFR between the medium and low levels is only ~0.2 children on average, and the difference in TFR between the medium and high projections is only around ~0.3 children on average – resulting in, because of compound increases on a growing base, a population size of 36.4 billion people.

Again, we stress that these are only if-then scenarios – but the sensitivity of population size to only small differences in TFR over time is important. We encourage students to refer to the document’s own text describing these projections, and certainly also to the more refined examinations of data in later graphs and text in this document.

A sense of political incorrectness about population growth first appeared well before the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro , and it was reinforced and expanded during the two-year period leading up to the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo , 1994. At the same time, in many circles the term “family planning” – which is a measurable factor – was replaced by the term “reproductive health”, which was defined in a wide variety of ways and is less measurable. Reproductive health is indisputably an important factor in women’s health and well-being, but its obscurity when used in either policy or demographic discussions may have helped to spur the disappearance of discussion about population.

In selecting the readings for this web site we have focused on countries where birth rates remain relatively high, and these tend to be the countries where women have little power and few options about their own childbearing, where survey data documents a sizable unmet need for family planning.

The Cairo Programme of Action, which was the outcome of the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994, is frequently misunderstood. It did not seek to drive attention away from population growth. In the Preamble’s 8 th section, it notes, “the world’s population will exceed 6 billion for the first time in 1999, of which yearly 80 per cent will be living in developing countries.” It points to “the large number of young people entering their childbearing years. The Programme of Action rightly emphasizes the need to integrate population concerns fully into development strategies and planning, taking into account the interrelationship of population issues with the goals of poverty eradication, food security, adequate shelter, employment and basic social services for all…” This relationship is reinforced later in the document, in section 3.14:

3.14. Efforts to slow down population growth, to reduce poverty, to achieve economic progress, to improve environmental protection, and to reduce unsustainable consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing. Slower population growth has in many countries bought more time to adjust to future population increases. This has increased those countries' ability to attack poverty, protect and repair the environment, and build the base for future sustainable development. Even the difference of a single decade in the transition to stabilization levels of fertility can have a considerable positive impact on quality of life.

The entire document, which covers the entire rage of priorities addressed in the two-year ICPD process, can be seen at: http://www.unfpa.org/icpd/icpd_poa.htm#ch1

Several critical analyses of the outcomes of the ICPD were produced in the year following the conference and its series of preparatory meetings. One of these focused on five “schools of thought” that were influential in the policy community at the time at the time of the 1992 Earth Summit with influence carrying over into ICPD and succeeding meetings, policy discussions and allocations of foreign aid agencies throughout the 1990s and beyond. This paper describes methodically four schools of thought whose adherents have expressed discomfort over attention to population growth. It brings in perspectives of the Vatican , a coalition of developing country delegates in the 1992 conference, and the free-market conservatives who have declined to worry about the growth of human populations. It introduces the term “asymmetry” for the first time in policy literature, to describe the impact of considerable efforts at the end of the Earth Summit to seek common ground between the women’s health community and people who retained interest in the population subject. Even today three of the four schools of thought that have resisted attention to population growth tend even today to work in inadvertent synergy, together reinforcing silence on the population subject.

Campbell , M. 1998. Schools of thought: An analysis of interest groups influential in international population policy. Population and Environment, Volume 19, Number 6, July: 487-512.

full pdf: http://pop-env.berkeley.edu/Documents/Campbell-Schools_of_Thought.pdf

Cincotta, R. P. and Engelman, R. 2000. Nature displaced: Human population trends and projections and their meanings. In nature and human society: The quest for a sustainable world. Washington , DC : National Academy Press.

http://books.nap.edu/books/0309065550/html/303.html#pagetop

Selected data bases

We want to offer to students easy access to a number of outstanding data sources that cover the multiple dimensions of demographic and social factors under the broader population subject area. These data bases are freely accessible on the internet and provide extensive information for research in the population field. They are are maintained by large organizations, where they are thoroughly researched and regularly updated.

Most sources provide the raw data itself as well as finished reports covering a wide range of issues necessary for population research. Most of them are organized by region or country and can be obtained for many points in time.

Data collected includes information on geography and demographic data (v ital statistics, population pyramids, life tables, ethnicity, religion, and language, literacy as well as labor force, employment, and income). Further included are resources for new population estimates and projections.

Several sources include numerous health indicators regarding family planning, maternal and child health, child survival, HIV/AIDS/sexually transmitted infections (STIs), infectious diseases, reproductive health and nutrition.